In the past few days, the most exciting and eagerly discussed topic in the capital market is that Tesla’s market value has soared to trillions of dollars, and Musk has become the world’s richest man. On October 25th, Hertz, the American car rental giant, ordered
100,000 Model 3. After the transaction was announced, Tesla’s stock price rose immediately, breaking the $1,000 mark, and its market value exceeded $1 trillion.
This is an epoch-making event. As a car company, Tesla has joined the trillion-dollar club for the first time.Apple,MicrosoftInternet giants such as Google, Google and Amazon are on the same list; Musk has also surpassed others and broke the practice of making the world’s richest man on the Internet for many years.
Not only the Hertz deal, in the Chinese market, in September, Model Y beat Haval H6 with 25,410 vehicles with a score of 33,544. This is not a competition among a hundred vehicles, but a new energy vehicle’s overall surpassing of traditional fuel vehicles. . Once the advantages are formed, it is difficult for traditional fuel vehicles to control the situation again.
When Hertz placed an order for 100,000 Model 3s for Tesla, when Model Y became the best-selling SUV in this discerning market in China, and when Tesla’s market value exceeded one trillion, it was no longer just a car company, but a company capable of A phenomenon-level brand that changes the industry and changes the trend.
There is no myth in this world. Under the scenery, it is difficult to hide the hidden worries. After Tesla soared to trillions, it still has to face the competition from latecomers, as well as the challenges of its own technology and safety issues.
What does replacing Haval H6 mean for the Chinese auto market?
The 100-month sales champion and the top brand of independent brand SUVs, the Haval H6 not only represents the ceiling of China’s SUVs, but also the vane of China’s SUV consumption. However, in September 2021, this record was completely broken.
It is not the old rival Changan CS75, nor the CR-V, the Changsheng general of the joint venture brand, but the new energy darling Model Y, a pure electric SUV that has been on the Chinese car market for less than a year.
Model Y’s September counterattack was not an accident. The continuously growing data is the most true portrayal.
In July this year, Tesla sold 32,968 new cars in China, of which 24,347 were exported and 8,621 were sold domestically. Tesla sold 44,264 new cars in China in August, of which 31,379 were exported and 12,885 were sold domestically. In September, Tesla’s new car sales in China reached 56,006, of which only 3,853 were exported and 52,153 were sold domestically.
(Shanghai’s top five auto retail sales in September)
Since the Shanghai production base has become the most important production base of Tesla in the world, it is specially for overseas markets. Therefore, Tesla has specially reduced the delivery of the domestic market for the overseas market. In September, the delivery of domestic orders was concentrated, resulting in domestic wholesale. The amount has soared.
According to data from Da Shi, Model Y became the highest-selling model in Shanghai in September this year. The retail sales in Shanghai alone reached 5,190 units. Coincidentally, Beijing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Hefei, etc. first-tier and quasi-first-tier models In cities, Model Y has become the highest-selling model.
Such a comprehensive replacement has objective factors. On October 25th, oil prices continued to rise. No. 92 oil has reached 7.51 yuan/liter, and since the last oil price adjustment, it has reached the expected increase of 65 yuan/ton, so another rise is a foregone conclusion. I can’t remember that this is the first few oil price increases this year, and this has also led to further squeeze in the sales of fuel vehicles. The myth that new energy vehicles exceed 10% and 20% in a year does not exist in imagination, but in reality. In China in 2021.
But it is not just luck for Model Y to become a phenomenal product.
The rise in oil prices has given rise to the rise in sales of new energy vehicles, and what really makes Model Y popular is the moat created by its brand, technology, and marketing, making it the industry leader.
In the past few years, under Musk’s “halo”, Tesla’s products and technologies have continued to make breakthroughs and improvements, and contribute to real consumption. Its brand, marketing, and communication have created about $1 billion in value for Tesla every year. These are heights that domestic new car forces cannot reach.
If the increase in sales caused by the B-end market is an accidental event, but behind the explosion of Model Y sales is the continuous increase in consumer demand. This is the hard power after market competition, and it is also the most genuinely able to be in the consumer market anyway. Status.
You must know that Model Y has only been on the market for less than a year, and the consumer trend is often slowly descending from the first-tier market to the second-tier, third-tier, and even fourth-tier and fifth-tier cities. Therefore, for the SUV market, competition has just begun.
Standing at a high position in the trillion-dollar market value, Tesla is not without worries.
First and foremost is the security issue. Since the birth and mass production of new energy vehicles, represented by Tesla and Weilai, they have both enjoyed the spotlightglory, Have to bear the question of safety.
The core reason why Tesla has become the head lies in the continuous improvement of technology, products, and sales. Technological leadership is Tesla’s most powerful weapon, a unique label, and sales growth is the certification of its market capabilities.
But Tesla’s technology is not completebeautiful, There are many security concerns. This is also the part where Tesla and consumers have the most game.
The obsession with high computing power and intelligence is an important foundation for Tesla to always maintain its advantages in the field of electric vehicles. However, Tesla is proud of its FSD crisis. Since its inception, there have been many consumer trust crises.
As of May 2021, the US NHTSA has launched a special investigation into 28 accidents related to Tesla vehicles. These accidents all involve Autopilot or FSD functions.
In August 2021, two U.S. senators wrote to the FTC, calling for an investigation into whether Tesla was involved in deception in promoting Autopilot and FSD. They worry that these two functions are not as mature and reliable as the company advertises. The letter stated that since Autopilot went live in 2015, at least 11 people in the United States have died while driving a Tesla vehicle and using this feature.
Obviously, the mythological Tesla cannot run blindfolded. Wouldn’t it be too cruel if the cost of human life was taken? Such enterprises will not go too far.
On the other hand, whether it was Tesla’s choice of self-developed AI chips before, or the beginning of the construction of Dojo supercomputers, it shows Tesla’s advanced layout for the integration of software and hardware in the AI part of the car.
But the problem is that Tesla, which has advanced technology, cannot solve the phenomenon of car machine system crashes. In China, Tesla car crashes seem to have changed from becoming the norm, and some people even said that only the Tesla whose car system crashes is the real Tesla.
In addition to safety, Tesla also faces a number of challenges. The popularity in the Chinese market is not only because of Musk and technological attributes, but also because of declining prices, making Tesla a highly cost-effective product.
However, the decline in the prices of Model 3 and Model Y has also led to a decline in sales of Tesla’s high-end models. There is a rule in the automotive industry. The lower the lower limit of a brand, the easier it is to be pulled down.
In the first three quarters, the output of Model S and Model X models was 8,941, a decrease of 47% compared with 16,992 in the same period last year. The decline in sales of high-end models meant a decline in the brand’s high-end recognition. How to choose between price and sales, Musk seems to choose the latter.
In addition, Tesla is also facing shortages in the global supply chain. On October 25th, Tesla once again raised the price of cars in the United States because of the tight supply chain system. In Musk’s view, Tesla has entered a fast path of growth. As for the threat, it is the current global supply chain shortage.
“This year, we have been facing the problem of parts supply, not just limited to chips.” Musk said that even if Tesla launches Semi or other products, it will not be able to complete production. Tesla aims for 1 million vehicles this year. From the current point of view, does Q4 need to be improved? 373,000 vehicles, but only 241,300 vehicles were delivered in Q2. It is undoubtedly difficult to achieve such a goal.
As Tesla, which exceeds the total market value of the top ten in the automotive industry, its valuation has made history and the driving force for maintaining such a high market value comes from Tesla’s first-mover advantage in the field of new energy vehicles and the strong pursuit of capital for the head of the industry.
In the past 10 years, Tesla can be said to have no real rivals, but with the efforts of latecomers and traditional car companies, Tesla’s real competition has just begun.
Tesla CEO Musk is also aware of this. He is stepping up his horsepower to open up a new front for Tesla, in terms of technology, production, and product lines, with the intention of giving nuclear bombs to his competitors.
Not long ago, Musk took his Gulfstream G650 to the Tesla Super Factory in Berlin, Germany, which means that the start date of the Berlin factory is already very close.
Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory is not only for the Chinese market, but also for the global market, especially the European market. In the first three quarters of 2021, the Shanghai Super Factory has sold 305,000 vehicles, accounting for nearly 49% of Tesla’s global sales of 627,350 vehicles in the first three quarters.
With the commissioning of the Berlin and Texas factories in 2022, Tesla has judged that with the blessing of the four major factories, Model Y will become the best-selling model in the world. You know that in 2020, the world’s best-selling model is Toyota Corolla, with more than 1.1 million vehicles.
As for future sales, Musk was once again shocking. He said that Tesla plans to achieve the goal of annual sales of 20 million electric vehicles by 2030.
What is the concept of 20 million vehicles? We need to know that in the entire Chinese market, the sales of passenger cars in a narrow sense are only 25 million a year, and the Volkswagen Group, the world’s highest-selling automobile group, will only sell 9.35 million a year in 2020. 20 million vehicles are so arrogant and impractical even for Tesla.
But Musk has to be so fast. He has to use his current first-mover advantage to create more production capacity and capture more markets.cell phoneCan.
Tesla’s current moat is: there is no electric car in the world that can confront it head-on.
At present, no matter whether it is a new car force or a traditional car company, no car can become a phenomenal product like Model Y. In the luxury car camp, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi have not yet launched their own electric cars in a true sense.
When Europeans are still struggling with how to reduce exhaust emissions, most of the models launched are fuel-to-electric models, which do not truly represent the German automobile industry; and in Japan, where the new energy automobile industry is developing rapidly, hybrid + hydrogen energy is also used as a model. The ultimate energy mix.
Only the Chinese auto market truly regards pure electric as the most important development path. However, many domestic new car forces in terms of product, marketing, brand, production capacity deployment, and supply chain, none of them can reach the height of Tesla.
It can be said that Tesla’s phased success lies in the slow pace of its competitors. However, once the transformation of traditional car companies begins to show results, and more Internet capital such as Apple,MilletThe successful intervention of Tesla will also encounter real competition since its inception.
Because reducing parts and costs through one-piece die-casting is a manifestation of Tesla’s technological strength, but the improvement of this technology and the reduction of costs are not endless. Especially when large groups such as Ford, Toyota, and PSA, emerging Internet capital such as Apple and Xiaomi, and even China’s Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Ideal are all following up, the first-mover advantage will be greatly reduced.
According to news, Toyota bz4x will be interviewed next year. Cadillac’s latest pure electric model Lyriq is already in the preparation stage for mass production, not to mention the mid-sized SUV models of Weilai ET7, ET7 and Xiaopeng, which will be launched in 2022.
The difficulty for Tesla to continue to maintain its technology and product leadership in the future will be much greater than it is now.
Tesla has its own technology, products, and supply chain hidden worries, and competitors are waiting and watching. How long can its lead last? No one knows the answer, but what can be confirmed is that in 2022, new energy vehicles will enter a completely different year of competition.