Brazil will become the second country to reach the tipping point due to cheap onshore wind, and the country could reduce the cost of green hydrogen to below $2 per kilogram as early as 2025.
Countries with higher renewable power generation costs (such as those in Southeast Asia) or countries with lower natural gas prices (some countries in the Americas) hit the tipping point later in the year. In Japan and South Korea, where renewable energy is some of the most expensive in the world, and the United Arab Emirates has some of the lowest gas prices in the world, green hydrogen won’t be more competitive than blue hydrogen until 2030.
Non-economic factors, such as resource availability and supply stability, may still drive blue hydrogen development, but such projects would be at risk of paying for carbon offsets, as carbon capture and storage (CCS) typically only captures 60 -90% site emissions.
Years in which green hydrogen is more competitive than blue hydrogen in each market
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance