Canalys analyst Liu Yixuan, an analyst at research firm Canalys, said in an interview with The Paper that the Chinese market will have folding screens this year.cell phoneIt can sell about 2 million units, and there is still a lot of room for growth next year. But she also emphasized that the overall scale of the folding machine is still relatively small, and there is no breakthrough in absolute quantity.
According to data previously released by Canalys, the smartphone market in mainland China shipped 67.4 million units in the second quarter of this year, down 10% year-on-year.
Several factors that affect the volume
Liu Yixuan said that so far, as a relatively new product, folding screen mobile phones are mainly used by geeks, technology fans, business people, and female users who pursue fashion trends.
Although these pioneers are interested in folding machines, more people have a wait-and-see attitude towards folding machines. At present, folding machines are relatively heavy and expensive, and the creases formed by screen folding and software adaptation are also the main reasons that hinder people from purchasing.
“Manufacturers are also working hard to reduce prices. In fact, the price of the screen has been going down, and the yield rate is constantly improving; the balance of battery life also needs to be considered for heavy and heavy parts. However, manufacturers will also have their own considerations in the final pricing, and some I don’t want to set the price too low to compete with my flagship tablet machine, and some have positioned the folding machine as a high-end product to form a certain differentiation. Generally speaking, the profit of the folding machine is not very high, and the hardware cost itself is very high. Yes.” Liu Yixuan said.
Folding screen mobile phones are officially commercialized in the 5G era. In February 2019, Huawei released the world’s first folding screen mobile phone, Huawei Mate X, which adopts the eversion folding scheme. at the same time,SamsungIt also released the first folding screen mobile phone Samsung Fold, which adopts the inner folding scheme. With the launch of products from Huawei and Samsung, folding screen phones have officially entered the market.
An important factor restricting the cost of folding screen mobile phones is the yield. Folding screen technology and related hinge technology lead to a relatively low yield of the overall folding machine.
Liu Yixuan believes that the technical improvement and yield improvement of folding screen mobile phones require the joint efforts of manufacturers and the supply chain to be completed. The current situation is that manufacturers and supply chain enterprises are jointly developing and promoting technological improvement, and they have also seen some progress.
In the absence of chip supply, Huawei has been building folding machines as its key products. During the three-year period, it launched five folding machine products, namely Mate X, Mate Xs, Mate X2, P50 Pocket and other products, and continued to focus on folding machines. machine iterates.
The Huawei Mate Xs 2 released this year has introduced many innovative materials previously used in marine deep diving, automobile high-speed rail, aerospace and other fields, such as ultra-light glass fiber, aviation-grade titanium alloy, etc., reducing the weight of the mobile phone, and the whole machine only weighs At 255g, it is close to an ordinary candy bar phone. It is the lightest folding large-screen mobile phone at present, with a starting price of 9999 yuan.
Another core technology hinge of folding screen mobile phones, Huawei Mate Xs 2 adopts the industry’s first double-rotating eagle-wing hinge design. During the folding process, the constant-length linkage control allows the hinge and the screen movement trajectory to be accurately linked. After closing, the hinge and the screen fit more closely; after unfolding, the screen is as flat as a mirror, which is 70% higher than the previous generation Huawei Mate Xs.
Huawei’s idea is also to cooperate in depth with industry partners to improve the experience of folding machines. In 2019, Huawei cooperated with developers to establish a folding screen application ecological alliance, launched a folding screen application development framework and design specifications, promoted the establishment of industry standards, and carried out in-depth cooperation with global developers to solve the adaptation of traditional mobile phone applications to folding screen mobile phones. question.
OPPO entered the folding machine a little late, but the Find N launched at the end of 2021 has achieved a good market response, and it once required a price increase to buy it. At present, OPPO’s official website shows that the Find N starts at 7,699 yuan.
As a latecomer, OPPO’s positioning of the folding machine is “from early adopters to common use”. Its folding screen design that can be held in one hand and the price advantage have made it a good sales volume.
according toJD.comBusiness intelligence data shows that in the first half of 2022, OPPO Find N continued to lead in sales, ranking first in the sales of foldable categories on JD.com’s self-operated platform.
In an interview with The Paper, an OPPO person said that in terms of hardware technology, OPPO’s drop-shaped hinge has created the best folding screen phone at present. In the field of product application, the screen of Find N can maintain a hovering state between 50-120 degrees. Combined with software optimization, it can support user scenarios such as watching dramas, listening to songs, calling, teleconferencing, and fitness. At present, the application adaptation rate of Top1000 has reached 85%.
OPPO said that with the gradual maturity of the supply chain, the yield rate of components is also increasing. The current price of folding screens has gradually dropped. In the future, with the maturity of the supply chain and the popularity of folding screens, the price is expected to be more affordable.
vivo has also launched the vivo X Fold series of folding machines, which start at 8,999 yuan. The highest version, vivo X Fold+, has become one of the hottest products in the current folding screen mobile phone market. A few days ago, the market research agency released data (9.26-10.9), showing that vivo rushes into the top three domestic folding screens (left and right folding) with the X Fold+, forming a three-strong situation in the folding screen market together with Huawei and Samsung.
Annual domestic folding machine sales are expected to reach 2 million units
Although there are still various problems in the folding screen mobile phone compared with the candy bar, its sales growth rate is still dazzling.
Liu Yixuan said that in the first half of this year, the domestic market sold almost 1.4 million units, and it is not a problem to reach 2 million units in the whole year. “In addition, in terms of growth rate, there will be a lot of room for growth next year.”
As for when it will be able to break through in volume, Liu Yixuan believes that when the price of the folding machine can be similar to the price of the flagship candy bar, the volume can be increased. Of course, it also needs to superimpose hardware and software support.
At present, the positioning of Android-based mobile phone manufacturers for folding screen mobile phones is still high-end, and the price is generally higher than that of candy bar flagship phones, which also means that the price of such mobile phones is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term.
“Compared with the candy bar machine with serious homogeneity, the folding machine can better reflect the differentiation of various design ideas, giving manufacturers room to play. We dare not say that within two or three years, we can achieve a very large volume. It is a new product form with a relatively imaginative space. We have also noticed that each company is focusing on the continuous innovation of folding machines, and we can also see the emergence of new product forms.” Liu Yixuan also said that in addition to Folding machines that fold left and right, more manufacturers may introduce folding machines that fold up and down to enrich the product form.