Citi: The semiconductor industry has entered the worst downturn in 10 years, and the stock may fall by another 25%
Although many analysts blame PCs and smartcell phoneSales cooled sharply due to the recession, but they pointed to continued strength in the auto and industrial sectors as reasons for optimism.
Danley isn’t seeing the same positives, though, arguing that these strong sectors are already showing signs of weakness ahead.
“We also see early signs of a correction in the automotive and industrial end markets, and we continue to believe the semiconductor industry is entering its worst downturn in a decade given the recession and rising inventories,” Danley noted.MicronTech and Analog Devices executives have disclosed in recent weeks that orders from the automotive and industrial sectors have been canceled.
“We expect more companies to announce cancellations from the automotive/industrial end markets as demand weakens as capacity increases,” Danley said.
Danley believes that will lead to further declines in chip stocks. “We still believe that every corporate/end market will correct and we expect the SOX to hit a new low and fall another 25%,” he said.
Danley was referring to the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), which is already on track for its biggest drop in 14 years. The index is down 32% so far this year and, if unchanged, would be the index’s biggest drop since 2008, when it fell 48%.
If it falls another 25% from the current 2700, the SOX will reach around 2020, which would be the lowest level since the 2019 close on July 7, 2020. The last time the SOX closed at a record high was on Dec. 27, when it closed at 4,039.51, according to FactSet.
SOX constituents that have fallen the most this year include Nvidia and Marvell Technology. Nvidia stock is down 48% this year, and Marvell is down 45%.