With the advent of Double Eleven, Apple (AAPL.US) also recently announced its fourth-quarter financial report for the 2021 fiscal year. The financial report shows that in this quarter, Apple achieved revenue of 83.36 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 29%, and the market is expected to be 84.69 billion U.S. dollars; adjusted net profit is 20.551 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 62%, and the market is expected to be 20.33 billion U.S. dollars. Revenue growth did not meet market expectations. The good news is that adjusted net profit slightly exceeded expectations.
The announcement of the financial report also further affected the changes in its stock price. After the announcement of the financial report, Apple’s stock price fell more than 4% after the market. On October 28, Apple’s stock price closed at US$152.57 per share. At 4:22 on October 29th, US time, the stock price fell to US$146.98. As of the close of trading on the 29th, Apple’s stock price was 149.800, still lower than the closing on the 28th. However, the stock price rose slightly after the 29th, although only 0.08%, which also shows the “entanglement” of the capital market.
Apple’s stock price decline was mainly affected by the poor performance of its main hardware, but in terms of the price-to-earnings ratio, there is still room for recovery. At present, Apple’s price-earnings ratio is around 29, which is somewhat different from Amazon’s 59; but it is slightly better than Google’s 28’s. As a technology giant comparable to Amazon and Google, the price-earnings ratio is moderate, but if you stretch the comparison line vertically, you will find that Apple is ultimately weaker. Compared with Tesla’s almost bursting price-earnings ratio of 335.88, the overall gap is very obvious. NS. The same giants that are hardware-based and soft-ecologically supplemented, there is not much room for bubbles in the comparison stock price of Tesla, a “fairy”, so it rose slightly after the 29th.
The reason why the P/E ratio between the two is so wide is that the hardware field “ruled” by Apple is a highly competitive field. In addition to poor performance, the slight fluctuation of the stock price is reasonable. Take the most watchedcell phoneIn terms of field, there is the Chinese teamHuawei,Millet,glory, OV Brothers and other companies are launching new products to seize the market, and competition is gradually becoming fierce. Apple’s overall performance and the pressure of the external environment have become realistic factors that the capital market has to consider.
Back to the financial report, let’s first say what I’m not optimistic about
Do not make any comments before clarifying, or take advantage of the freshly released financial report, return to the financial report itself, after all, the data is the most convincing.
First of all, many of Apple’s hardware business fell short of expectations this quarter, and the “cake is not big”.iPadBecame one of the few bright spots; includingiPhone, Mac, iPad and wearable devices, household products andAccessoriesIncluding hardware business, revenue totaled 65.073 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 78.06% of total revenue. Among them, iPhone is the main force in revenue, and its revenue accounted for 46.62% of total revenue, accounting for nearly half of the country. Although the iPhone’s year-on-year growth and revenue accounted for a relatively high proportion, it still did not meet market expectations. According to data provided by Refinitiv, analysts had previously expected that Apple’s fourth-quarter revenue from the iPhone would reach US$41.51 billion, which is US$2.642 billion short of expectations.
In contrast, the iPad alone brought joy to Apple’s hardware revenue, with a revenue of $8.252 billion higher than the market’s expected $7.2 billion. iPad revenue can exceed market expectations, which is closely related to the special market background. Due to the epidemic, studies and work have been forced to move online. Tablets have become the first choice for home study and office due to their large screen, mobility, and convenience. This can also be found from market data. According to the first edition data of the International Data Corporation (IDC) Global Tablet PC Quarterly Tracking Report, the tablet PC market performed well in the first quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 55.2% and a total of 39.9 million shipments. Taiwan, this scale of growth has reappeared after a year-on-year increase of 56.9% in the third quarter of 2013. So far, tablet sales are still eating the “bonus” of the black swan event.
According to the above IDC report, compared with the global market, China’s tablet computer market shipped approximately 6.25 million units in the first quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, the highest year-on-year growth rate in a single quarter since the second quarter of 2013; From the perspective of major computer manufacturers, in the first quarter of 2021, Apple also ranked first in the Chinese market, with shipments of approximately 2.66 million units, a year-on-year increase of 103.2%, occupying a market share of 42.5%. Huawei’s tablet ranked second, with shipments of approximately 1.5 million units, an increase of 26.9% year-on-year, and a market share of 24.0%. The independent Honor tablet shipped approximately 530,000 units, an increase of 68.5% year-on-year, and its market share accounted for 8.5%.
Because of the overall upward trend of tablet PCs this year, Apple iPad has also “rising water.” However, since even if the sales volume is increased by half, the proportion of its overall revenue is only about 10%, and its effect on the “maintenance” of stock prices is relatively weak.
Secondly, the capabilities in software services have become stronger, but the growth rate is worrying and the release of bad signals; the mediocre performance of the hardware side has not affected the software service business to exceed expectations again. The software service business achieved 18.3 billion US dollars, exceeding market expectations of 17.64 billion US dollars. The gross profit margin of software services this quarter reached 70.5%, and both quarterly revenue and gross profit margin reached record highs.
Although software service revenue is growing, and some achievements have been made, the proportion of total revenue has reached 21.95%, but the chain growth rate is too slow to slow down the performance. In the third quarter of fiscal 2021, service revenue of US$17.48 billion accounted for 21.46% of the total revenue of US$81.434 billion. The proportion of time service revenue in a quarter only increased by 0.49%. Greatly weakened.
In addition, many disturbances in the “Apple Tax” will also become a major obstacle to Apple’s service revenue. First, there was a year-long litigation dispute with the developer of the game “Fortnite” Epic Games. The court found that Apple’s actions violated the California Anti-Unfair Competition Law. Let Apple cast a shadow; then, according to news from Agence France-Presse on October 23, Apple updated its App Store rules to allow developers to directly contact users on payment matters without paying Apple 15% or 30% commission. The current scope of the incident is still very small, but because this rule is “updated” under external pressure, it is tantamount to saying that the “Apple Tax” era is facing variables.
One wave has not settled, another wave has risen. On October 27, the Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) announced that it had filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple because Apple failed to lift the App Store application developer’s notification of other payment methods to customers. FAS believes that Apple is abusing its dominant position in the iOS application distribution market, restricting the freedom of developers and curbing market competition, leading to higher product prices. Therefore, FAS issued a warning to Apple on August 30, requesting Apple to stop violating antitrust laws before September 30. However, because Apple did not comply with the warning requirements, FAS decided to file a lawsuit on the grounds that Apple violated the antitrust laws. It is understood that if Apple is found to have violated the competition law, the regulator will impose fines based on Apple’s revenue in Russia. Numerous negative news makes people wonder how long the Apple tax will last in the future, and whether the Apple tax will be compulsorily “abolished” in some countries? These are undoubtedly worse for Apple.
Finally, the exploration business has not yet taken shape, and Apple does not like the concept of construction, and the impact is relatively small; the exploration business such as the Internet of Things and car manufacturing is still in the concept stage. Among them, the car manufacturing business is worth mentioning. In an era when people are keen to build cars, Apple will naturally not be left behind, and Apple’s car-making heart has a long history. As early as 2014, Apple launched a car-building plan code-named “Titan”, intending to launch a new energy vehicle that can compete with Tesla. To this end, Apple spent a huge amount of money to dig out the power test and hybrid system engineers of many companies such as Chrysler, Tesla, Ford and so on, forming a team of 1,000 employees.
However, Apple’s car-building plan did not get a good continuation. With the resignation of employees, Apple had to postpone car-building and began to develop autonomous driving technology. According to incomplete statistics, from 2017 to 2020, Apple has obtained more than 100 car-related patented technologies, covering autonomous driving, on-board systems, car body structures, smart cockpits, etc. The proportion of patents for autonomous driving technology rose from 22% in 2016 to 41% in 2019.
After making some achievements in the field of autonomous driving, Apple restarted its car-making plan in January this year and sought to cooperate with car companies to produce cars. According to media reports, Apple has visited a number of automotive supply chain manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers in South Korea and Japan, including Hyundai, Toyota, and LG Electronics, but they have failed to make substantial progress. Recently, the news of Apple making cars has made waves again. According to foreign media reports, Apple’s negotiations with CATL and BYD on its planned battery supply for electric vehicles have not made substantial progress. Under the stalemate, Apple turned to Panasonic. Whether the news is true or not has not been confirmed by Apple, but the person in charge of Panasonic Battery said in an interview that he does not deny all possibilities. Maybe Panasonic wants to leave room for future cooperation. New attempts to keep pace with the times are indeed a bonus item, but due to lack of qualitative breakthroughs and Apple’s low-key character of “holding over” news, it is still difficult to stabilize the stock price.
To be a digression, if Apple fired every day like Xiaomi, the stock price would have soared. But the reason why Apple is Apple is that Cook is not Rebs (crossed out, it should be Cook not Kubus).
On the whole, Apple’s hardware business is under pressure; software services business has grown, but it is difficult to shoulder the responsibility of revenue; exploring the business is more than enough and insufficient. The problem exposed from the financial report is that Apple’s recent situation is not satisfactory.
Behind the slight increase, the financial report also released some “good” signals
Performance is the internal driving force that affects stock price changes. Due to the impact of the “black swan” event of the epidemic, which threatened Apple’s supply chain and affected Apple’s production capacity, it is expected that Apple’s fourth-quarter financial report was lower than market expectations.
It was precisely because Apple failed to meet market expectations that its stock fell more than 4% in the after-hours market. Although Apple’s stock price fluctuated briefly, a closer look at Apple’s financial report shows that its strength is still strong.
First of all, Apple’s ability to “create new” wearable devices is very strong, laying a good foreshadowing; according to IDC data, global wearable device shipments will reach 442 million units in 2020, and global wearable device shipments are expected to reach 632 million units.
With the outbreak of the wearable device market, Apple’s sales of wearable devices also ushered in growth. Apple’s performance in the field of smart watches is strong, and the lower-priced Apple Watch SE has been recognized by consumers in the market. In addition, in an earlier earnings call, Apple said that wearable devices will be created in the first quarter of 2021. With a new revenue record, Apple’s wearable device business has now reached the scale of a Fortune 120 company.
With Apple’s continuous intensive cultivation of wearable device products in recent years, its business revenue has continued to grow. According to data from Apple’s financial report, Apple’s sales of wearable devices, home furnishings and accessories were 8.79 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 11.5% from the 7.88 billion U.S. dollars in the same period last year. Nowadays, from the perspective of Apple’s revenue business, wearable devices have become Apple’s third largest business. However, from smart watches, wireless earphones, and AirTag, these hardware products have good reputation and sales, and they have released very good signals.
As a global consumer electronics vane, Apple also maintains a strong competitiveness in the wearable device industry. According to data from the research organization Canalys, the global wearable device market reached 4,090 in the second quarter of 2021. Millet surpassed Apple in the second quarter, accounting for 19.6% of the market, with 8 million units shipped, while Apple’s market share was 19.3% with 7.9 million shipments. But Apple’s growth rate is still faster than Xiaomi, the former increased by 29.4% year-on-year, while Xiaomi’s was 2.6%.
It is also worth noting that after the launch of the iPhone 13 series on September 24 this year, Apple has released new products including Apple Watch Series 7, AirPods 3, etc. It is well known that October is the beginning of the “Apple wave”. Therefore, According to market estimates, the iPhone’s revenue contribution will even exceed 60% in the quarter of the year-end peak sales season. Apple’s wearable devices will also become another growth engine following the mobile phone and computer business.
Secondly, affected by the “chip shortage” incident, Apple’s self-developed chips have promoted overall revenue growth; now the global core shortage crisis has lasted for a year, and the delay of mobile phones caused by the lack of core has also given more and more companies Bringing challenges, even Apple failed to survive this “chip shortage” incident.
Some analysts pointed out that due to chip shortages and continuing supply chain issues, Apple’s sales and revenues in the next year may decline. Apple’s iPhone 13 shipments in the next quarter are expected to drop by 10 million units. The delivery date of the iPhone 13 series, Apple Watch, and iPad series released by Apple has been scheduled to December.
But thanks to the support of Apple’s self-developed chip M1, its Mac products have not yet been affected by the lack of cores. According to its financial report data, Mac revenue for the 2021 fiscal year was 9.17 billion U.S. dollars, setting a historical quarterly revenue record for Mac. Apple CEO Cook also stated in the earnings call that Mac’s revenue mainly comes from equipped with self-developed chips.MacBookAir, customers have strong demand for it.
In addition to solving the problem of production capacity, the key to self-developed chips is that it can greatly save a large amount of chip costs. If all of Apple’s hardware chips are “in-house” in the future, even if the market growth rate of iPhone, Mac, and smart watches is average, it can free up Of huge profits.
Moreover, the increase in sales of MI chips has greatly enhanced the outside world’s imagination about the future trend of Apple’s hardware.
Since Apple released the M1 chip, Apple’s Mac series sales have been growing. According to Apple’s financial director Luca Maestri, the company’s Mac revenue in the past five quarters is the best five quarters in the history of this category.
Finally, sales in Greater China are growing rapidly, and Apple’s domestic market has a bright future. With the rapid development of China’s consumer market, China’s per capita consumption is also continuously increasing. From the perspective of final consumption, relevant data show that the current average consumption in developed countries accounts for more than 70% of GDP, the United States and the United Kingdom account for more than 80%, and China accounts for 55.4%. Compared with developed countries, there is still a great potential for growth. It is predicted that this group will grow to 800 million people in the next 15 years, and the consumption prospects are very broad.
It was also verified in Apple’s financial report that China has become a force that cannot be ignored, both in terms of market size and consumption potential.
According to Apple’s fourth-quarter financial report data, the net revenue of Apple’s Americas division was 36.82 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 30.698 billion U.S. dollars in the same period last year; the European division’s net revenue was 20.794 billion U.S. dollars, compared with the same period last year. US$16.900 billion; Net revenue in Greater China was US$14.563 billion, compared to US$7.946 billion in the same period last year, an increase of 83% year-on-year; Net revenue of the Japanese sector was US$5.991 billion, compared to 50.23 in the same period last year. Billion US dollars; the rest of the Asia-Pacific region net revenue was 5.192 billion US dollars, compared with 4.131 billion US dollars in the same period last year.
Looking at China’s smartphone market as a whole, according to Counterpoint Research data, China’s total mobile phone shipments in the third quarter were 76.5 million units, of whichaliveRanked first with a market share of 23%, and shipments increased by 21% year-on-year;OPPORanked second with a market share of 20%, an increase of 26% year-on-year; Honor ranked third with a market share of 15%; Xiaomi ranked fourth with a market share of 14%; fifth was with a market share of 13% Apple.
However, it is worth noting that in the conference call in the last fiscal quarter, Cook mentioned that Chinese users have had a very enthusiastic response to the iPhone 12 series, which has brought huge growth to Apple. And Apple’s hot sales are naturally inseparable from the various promotional activities of major e-commerce platforms. The upcoming Double Eleven will again trigger a wave of user replacements. By then, Apple’s market share in China has yet to be investigated.
However, Apple’s stock price has fallen because its earnings report data is not eye-catching. Today’s capital market is like a profit-seeking market. For Apple as a technology giant in the market, although revenue is still stable, the “story” of super hardware needs to be updated.
In general, Apple’s financial report data this time is fairly satisfactory. After all, it has experienced the impact of the epidemic and the lack of core events, especially in Europe and the United States, which has been shrouded in the new crown epidemic for the past year, so the financial report data is not eye-catching. In reason.
The slowdown in financial report data has also made people more cautious. Only stocks with enough room for growth can attract the attention of the capital market. Judging from today’s Apple stock price, slow growth will be the norm in the future. As for when it will be favored by capital, it remains to be seen when Apple will have a burst of money.