The most watched earnings report this week in the US stock earnings season was announced. Apple once again handed over a dazzling earnings report, but the two core performance indicators were both lower than market expectations.More importantly, Apple’s performance is clearly shrouded in the shadow of the supply chain crisis. How long this global supply chain crisis will last, even the “supply chain master” Cook cannot know.
After the U.S. stock market on Thursday, Apple announced the third quarter (Apple’s 2021 fiscal year fourth quarter) performance report as of September 25. The financial report shows that Apple achieved revenue of 83.4 billion U.S. dollars in the quarter, an increase of 29% year-on-year, and the market is expected to be 85.1 billion U.S. dollars. Profit for the quarter was US$20.6 billion, an increase of 62% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. Apple’s profit this fiscal year has reached 94.6 billion U.S. dollars, far exceeding the previous record of 58.5 billion U.S. dollars in 2018.
Judging from the financial report, the new crown epidemic did not have a significant impact on Apple’s financial report revenue. As in previous quarters, almost all of Apple’s product lines and sales regions achieved revenue growth during the quarter.
Mac business revenue increased from 9 billion US dollars to 9.2 billion US dollars in the quarter, slightly higher than market expectations of 9.1 billion US dollars. Apple released a newMacBookPro products, these two new products will be reflected in the fourth quarter earnings report. Wearable, smart home andAccessoriesBusiness revenue increased from 7.9 billion U.S. dollars to 8.8 billion U.S. dollars, but it was significantly lower than market expectations of 9.4 billion U.S. dollars. andiPadBusiness revenue increased from 6.8 billion U.S. dollars to 8.3 billion U.S. dollars, higher than market expectations of 7.2 billion U.S. dollars. Service business revenue increased from US$14.5 billion to US$18.3 billion, higher than market expectations of US$17.7 billion. These two businesses are also Apple’s best-performing business lines in the season. In the quarter, revenue in Greater China was US$14.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 83.3%.
The supply chain crisis caused by the epidemic directly affected Apple’s production capacity and also brought a drag on Apple’s revenue growth, resulting in key revenue indicators lower than market expectations. Cook said on the earnings call that supply chain issues have directly reduced Apple’s revenue for the quarter by $6 billion.
Current seasoniPhoneBusiness revenue was US$38.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and the market is expected to be US$41.2 billion. It should be pointed out that this year’s iPhone was launched on September 24. Therefore, this third-quarter financial report only counts the two-day sales of the iPhone 13 series. For this reason, the iPhone accounted for only 47% of Apple’s total revenue in the current quarter. In the fourth quarter of the year-end sales season, the iPhone revenue contribution will even exceed 60%.
As Apple’s total revenue and iPhone business revenue both fell below market expectations during the quarter. This means that Apple’s revenue growth has not reached outside targets. Affected by this, after the announcement of the results, Apple’s stock price fell more than 4.5% after the market.
Under the shadow of obvious supply chain problems, the market had also predicted that Apple’s third-quarter earnings may be lower than market expectations. As early as the July earnings call, Apple issued an early warning that due to the impact on the supply of core components such as chips, the performance of some products in the third quarter will be dragged down. Deutsche Bank analyst Sidney Ho said that recent supply chain issues may put pressure on Apple’s short-term performance. He had previously predicted that Apple’s third-quarter performance may therefore be lower than expected.
The real focus of the outside world on Apple’s performance is not the third-quarter financial report, but how long the supply chain problem will last. Specifically, Apple’s current supply chain issues will have much impact on year-end sales. Apple did not provide its fourth-quarter performance forecast. JP Morgan Chase analyst Samik Chatterjee predicts that due to supply chain issues affecting insufficient production capacity, Apple’s fourth-quarter revenue may be lower than previously expected. Bloomberg predicted that Apple’s revenue could exceed $120 billion this quarter, an increase of 7% year-on-year.
Even though Apple has the strongest supply chain in the world, it is facing an unprecedented scale global supply chain crisis caused by the new crown epidemic. Apple’s production capacity has also been significantly affected, especially the tight chip supply and the interruption of the manufacturing chain. Apple’s newly released iPhone 13 series, Apple Watch, and iPad Mini series have already been scheduled for delivery in December. In addition to these newly released new products, eveniMacThe delivery of the original products was also delayed.
The fourth quarter is the peak shopping season of each year, and it is also the season for Apple’s revenue explosion. In the past few years, with the exception of 2018, Apple’s revenue in the fourth quarter of each year will hit a new high. In the fourth quarter of last year, it exceeded $111 billion for the first time. But if Apple cannot guarantee the supply of new products, then consumers cannot place orders during the shopping season, which will contribute to Apple’s revenue.
No one knows exactly how serious the problems in Apple’s supply chain are and how long it will take to resolve them. Because it depends on when the chip shortage is effectively alleviated, and when the epidemic will recede in East Asia and Southeast Asia (the core area of Apple’s supply chain and manufacturing chain). Recently, Apple has been increasing the proportion of suppliers in mainland China, perhaps to ensure a stable supply and foundry production capacity.
Earlier, according to Bloomberg News, due to continued chip constraints, Apple may lower the expected output of the iPhone 13 series by as much as 10 million. Previously, Apple planned to produce 90 million iPhones this year.cell phone. It needs to be explained that the chip that Apple lacks is not high-end core CPUs such as the A series or M series (both are 5nm process), but mature process chips required for many components such as display screens and wireless components, and chip reservation and delivery The cycle is even close to 22 weeks.
Cook also stated on the analyst conference call that although Apple does not face a tight supply of high-end core chips, it still faces competition with other companies in terms of the supply of chips for many other mature processes. Although Apple has taken many measures to alleviate the impact of the supply chain crisis, when the global chip shortage will be alleviated, he cannot give an accurate forecast. andIntelCEO Kissinger even expects that the problem of tight chip supply will continue into 2023.
Before he became Apple’s CEO, Cook won the trust of Jobs with his outstanding performance as a “supply chain master” and entered the core management. But ten years after he succeeded Jobs, he was faced with a supply chain crisis caused by this once-in-a-century global epidemic. Even Apple, which has the strongest voice in the global supply chain, was not immune to being involved. (Zheng Jun from Silicon Valley, USA)